bellwether counties epoch times

By Cara Ding. Its population is 60% white and 27% Black. In Ridgway, Biden supporters were more difficult to find and more reluctant to talk than Trump supporters, but a few yard signs were dotted around. Those who believe that Donald Trump won the 2020 presidential election have held up his victories in many bellwether counties as evidence of electoral fraud. In Terre Haute, 52-year-old Scott Hamilton said the main issue for him in this election is how divided the nation is; he said Trump is mostly to blame. Bobby Tisdell stands in front of his home in West Terre Haute, Vigo County, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. And it can happen.. Haotian Chen University of California, Irvine I dont think my vote counts, he told The Epoch Times. But, he said, he also doesnt complain. This includes personalizing content and advertising. A former Republican stronghold, Wood County supported GOP candidates Gerald Ford in 1976, and Donald Trump in 2020. Thats a highly Democratic area, but people see whats going on and theyre not happy, Sam said. The price of gas at the Marathon gas station in Port Clinton was $3.39 a gallon on Feb. 22 whenDave Beggs, anarmy veteran and retired City of Port Clinton heavy equipment operator, pulled in. John Hawker, a 74-year-old Port Clinton resident who grew up in Toledo, was sitting at the end of the bar and also weighed in on the state of affairs. Were offering a $250 bonus if someone can work 20 or more hours during their first four weeks of employment with us. If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? 2020: Trump - 59.1%, Biden - 38.5. Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to, nationally. The issues most important to Jacobs are immigration, the health care system, and socialism. Over the same time period, Democrat registrations have dipped from 9,526 to 7,576. Many counties in states that have reliably voted for one party for many cycles are home to counties which have almost always voted for the winner of the election; for example, South Carolina has two strong bellwether counties despite being a reliably Republican state, and California has a number of strong bellwethers in its central valley despite being a reliably Democratic state.. The 19 bellwether counties are highlighted in red. The researchers also mapped all American counties (over 3,000) by their bellwether scorethat is their record of voting for the overall winner in each of the previous 10 presidential electionsgiving progressively larger weight to more recent elections. Swept up in unproven voter fraud claims, the Shasta County Board of Supervisors has upended the county's election process, canceling its contract with . As a father, I would be curious about what my kids are doing.. The indirect evidence for election fraud rests on various statistical claims about the high level of improbability of certain features of the 2020 election. Richard Zulch, an Army veteran who served in Vietnam as a combat engineer from 1969 through 1971 and is the quartermaster for Veterans of Foreign Wars Post 4811 in Bowling Green, said he has been able to see the political landscape from both sides of the fence. The voter shift is happening statewide, and despite Democrats having 750,000 more registered voters, Republicans have gained 75,000 since 2016, while Democrats have lost 91,000. Biden Extends National Emergency Due to Extraordinary Threat of Russian Actions in Ukraine, Tulsi Gabbard Says Election Fraud a 'Serious Threat,' Announces Bill Targeting Ballot Harvesting. Mike DeWine is running for reelection and facing candidates Joe Blystone, Jim Renacci, and Ron Hood in the primary. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. I trust the system implicitly, he said. dionisia pacquiao net worth; leer un archivo excel en sql server; alix pasquet iii relationship; american gold eagle type 1 vs type 2; sniper spotting scope; Jacobs believes theres more enthusiasm for Trump now than before the 2016 electionin Elk County and around the country. He was concerned about the situation in Ukraine. Political scientists have a term for counties or states that anticipate how the rest of the country will votebellwethers. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. Recently, the company needed to find a part for one of its trucks, and it actually located the only part available in the United States and was able to get it. I just think theres going to be a lot of problems if he doesnt become our president all the violence and the riots. No one who spoke to The Epoch Times had anything positive to say about Wolfs continued shutdowns in the state. Perhaps that is why they are a true bellwether county, not fully committing to one political party over the other. Nothing has changed regarding the date of the May 3 primary election, Baumgardner said. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. Now, being more than $3 a gallon, people are beginning to notice it more as its putting a pinch on their wallets. Thats about 43 percent of the eligible voters in the country, according to a study of nonvoters overseen by professors at Tufts University and Stony Brook University. In economics, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend. One such claim is that Trumps victories in 2020 in the vast bulk of the counties that had previously been labeled as bellwethers proved that Trump really won the election and was denied the victory because of fraud. Theres too much mishandling, she said. The Upper Mississippi River Valley and it [sic] surrounding area, in particular, appears to be an epicenter of these high-scoring bellwethers., Teresa Shepherd, resident of the Indiana bellwether county of Vigo, in front of her daughters house in Seelyville, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. It could be said that Ottawa County is one of the top bellwether counties in Ohio, if not the country. Ive heard all the whiners complaining about what hes doing, but I havent really seen anything hardcore. I vote for whomever I think is going to do the better job, whether they are a Democrat or a Republican. The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. Rarely are we really stuck with people in leadership that are fairly moderate. Farming also is a big part of Wood County's make up in northwest Ohio. Haotian Chen is a Ph.D. student in political science at the University of California, Irvine. They see it as just a show, but I think he is for America. Because the man made a lot of promises in 2016, and I think that he stood up and he kept every one of those promises that he could possibly keep, said Ron Fannin, 69, the local courthouse supervisor. This claim is basically absurd. The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout, nationally, according to census data. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Our roads need to be fixed. The shift is evident when comparing current registrations with the 2016 numbers. I think it worked out without me.. I believe in what they call entitlement programs, Hamilton said. We can place an order and immediately get an email back of what they dont have. This includes personalizing content and advertising. And its never going to come back.. The researchers also mapped all U.S. counties (over 3,000) by their bellwether scoretheir record of voting for the overall winner in each of the previous 10 presidential electionsgiving progressively larger weight to more recent elections. Carol Jacobs and her husband were lifelong Democrats until 2016. Data de l'entrada martin county clerk of court jobs; whats wrong secretary kim dramawiki . Though Myers leans toward Trump, he hasnt made up his mind to vote for him yet; he didnt vote for Trump in 2016. These 10 bellwether counties five in Sun Belt battlegrounds, five in the Frost Belt (loosely defined to include Iowa) could point us toward each state's winner. Itll be interesting to see who wins Sen. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa . It is as if the devastating rebuttals by Tufte in Data Analysis for Politics and Policy or the equally devastating review of the evidence in David A. Hopkins 2017 book Red Fighting Blue never happened. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. The last time Ottawa County deviated from its winning choice for president was in 1960 when the county supported Republican Richard Nixon, but Democrat John F. Kennedy won. Eleven of the nineteen were located in just six Midwestern states, and Wisconsin alone is home to four, they said. Its been a long time since we were fully staffed with 35 cooks. Hawker told The Epoch Times he voted for Trump in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, and if he wouldve been re-elected, the country wouldnt be facing the problems they are having now. 'I Should Start Voting'. Im not even sure what direction were going.. Of Wood Countys 92,119 registered voters, 9,479 of them are Democrats, 8,315 are Republicans, and 74,240 are independents, according to numbers from the Board of Elections. Bellwethers arent a crystal balltheir streak was expected to end sooner or later. He predicts that many Trump voters will start to waver in the weeks leading up to the election and will end up not voting. Since picking the winning candidate in Democrat Lyndon Baines Johnson in 1964, it has deviated from the winner only twice. Republican registrations have increased from 8,467 on Nov. 9, 2016, to 9,960 as of Sept. 17 this year. He is just outspoken and doesnt filter what he is saying.. He was an apprentice and then a journeyman in a local steamfitters union for about 10 years before he was laid off. Chamberlin, who has worked for the regional chain for 17 years, estimates he has saved about $2,000 in gas over the past year. RIDGWAY, Pa.Tucked into a wooded valley in north-central Pennsylvania is the bellwether borough of Ridgway, the county seat . But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. They need to take care of the older people here. The 19 bellwethers tend to be poorer, whiter, older, and less educated than the rest of the country, according to an August paper by researchers from the University of Denver and University of New Hampshire. Nothing is free, Hawker said. Shortages are all over the place, Miller said. Im kind of leaning toward being an independent. (Michael Sakal/The Epoch Times). That was a blow to the area, Miller said about Peloton ending its plans for a $400 million project. Meanwhile, Miller and Zulch voiced their support for restarting the Keystone XL pipeline to help the United States return to energy independence and provide oil to European countries experiencing gas shortages and high prices. Youre not getting anybody perfect. Longtime Bowling Green resident Doug Miller, a conservative and Donald Trump supporter who works as a chief operating officer for a heavy-duty trucking company in nearby Fremont, said the company, which was heavily affected during the pandemic, is still navigating challenges. Getting fertilizer can be a challenge.. I think all politicians are crooks. While these are the top bellwether counties, there are many more that are considered to be predictive. More importantly, someone needs to be in office who understands that running the country is like running a business, said Hawker, who worked as a staff engineer for Bendix Braking Systems in Elyria for 52 years. I tend to vote my morals, Myers told The Epoch Times. Washington County, Maine - one miss since 1972 (in 1976), perfect since 1980. Martin thinks the Democrats could have chosen a better candidate than Biden. The City Center festival continued with Kyiv City Ballet, a Christopher Wheeldon duet and a daring work for Dayton Contemporary Dance Company. I just dont think hes capable of doing the job that its going to require of him.. Two states have announced recounts. Vigo County voters supported Trump by a 15 percent margin in 2016. She can be reached at cara.ding@epochtimes.com, Biden Extends National Emergency Due to Extraordinary Threat of Russian Actions in Ukraine, Suburban Wisconsin Voters Divided on Presidential Race. Both Hidalgo and Valencia County, New Mexico, are close to 60 percent Hispanic. Delaware's Kent County last missed in 1992. He said he finds it hard to believe Bidens claim that he never talked to his son Hunter Biden about his deals in Ukraine and China. Workforce shortages are mostly everywhere, he said. The Epoch Times spoke with some voters in Terre Haute and surrounding towns on Oct. 20 to get a glimpse of the bellwether mood ahead of the presidential election. We dont want it, she said. I just got on Social Security disability, because I cant work anymore. President Trump won every single bellwether county, except Clallam County in Washington. But the thing that stuck out in my head, every time I read or listened to anything about [Obamas] policies, I saw such a deep revival of division, causing division between the blacks and the whites again, Jacobs said on Sept. 17. Wood (population 132,248), and Ottawa, are known as bellwether counties for picking the presidential candidate who wins the White Housebut it is uncertain whether Wood County can maintain that reputation. He cares about the American people.. On Sept. 14, a federal judge ruled Wolfs shutdown and restrictions on businesses unconstitutional, but the governor has since appealed. In the southern area just off Interstate 75 sits Bowling Green, the county seat and home of Bowling Green State University and Doyt L. Perry Stadium, where the Falcons draw large crowds in the Mid-American Conference. I dont listen to the news. Finally, numerical bellwether scores for all 3142 counties in the US were computed based upon the number of . They also found that high-scoring counties exhibit a geographic trend. Residents who were asked about any candidate choices tended to be true to their reputation as a bellwether county, with more of a wait-and-see type of attitude of seeing whos going to step up as a presidential candidate in 2024. "The Wall Street Journal and The Epoch Times independently analyzed the results of 19 counties around the United States that have nearly perfect presidential voting records over the last 40 years. Given the global context of Russias invasion of Ukraine, they believe higher gas prices and inflation is coming, and theyre not happy about it. But Myers doesnt think Biden is respectful to Trump either. Im seeing more hate for this man than he has hated anyone, Tisdell said. Carol Jacobs in Ridgway, Elk County, Penn., on Sept. 17, 2020. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Its gone, Jacobs said. Articles after the 2020 election examining the predictive power of previous bellwethers are found in other sources, including the Wall Street Journal and the Epoch Times. He considers Trump pro-life. The 2012 outcome seemed to be the beginning of a more robust shift to the right for the countywhile the state reelected Obama, Elk County had already moved on. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. We are a rural county here, Hill told The Epoch Times. He loves his country to the point where he wants it to do well.. A diverse group of residents, many were surprised to wake up the morning of Nov. 4, 2020, to see that Joe Biden overtook Trumps leads in numerous battleground states from the night beforesuch as in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Overall, the county is in good shape, and has a lot going for it.. Its just not that great, Paul said. And to force somebody to do it, it just makes even less sense, because this country is supposed to be free.. Former President Trump and his supporters continue to loudly assert that he really won the 2020 election even though all the alleged direct evidence of fraud has not passed the sniff test of local courts, including those with Republican judges. Hes concerned a Biden administration would mean an end to fracking, higher gas prices, and utility bill hikes. He soon lost his car, because he fell behind on license plate fees. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck-to-neck. In 2020 the expansion also began generating $898,000 a year for the next 15 years for Lake Local Schools. bellwether. Many counties in states that have reliably voted for one party for many cycles are home to counties which have almost always voted for the winner of the election; for example, South Carolina has two strong bellwether counties despite being a reliably Republican state, and California has a number of strong bellwethers in its central valley despite being a reliably Democratic state.. Were a service industry-oriented area. Our infrastructure is in bad shape.. All the negativity, and just pure anger for this one person in office I have never seen it before. He said Vigo County is fairly evenly divided between those who identify as Republicans and those who identify as Democrats. I cannot support a candidate that is not pro-life. Pro-life is one of the top items on his list of issues. When he became a Christian, he struggled with his unions blind support for Democratic candidates, most of whom arent pro-life, he said. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. We need election reform.. The sentiments of those arriving at or leaving the Kroger grocery down the street in Port Clinton echoed those at the gas station. His morals also include being honest, and he is bothered by what he sees as lies coming from both candidates. Right now, its horrible. And its just so easy to snowball it to where chances are, if youre not very careful and work very hard in the other direction, you may just [continue a life of crime].. Since he became a Christian in the mid-1990s, he said hes used his moral compass to determine his vote. Thats probably the biggest fear right now when I talk to people. Hamilton sees value in both parties, he said, but he considers himself Democratic-leaning. You expect the price of things to go up, thats inflation for you, Tammy said. The legislature of Orange County, New York, unanimously passed a revised spending plan of close to $75 million in federal COVID-19 . Most of the jobs up here are part-time or seasonal. Visual inspection suggests that, like other counties, they voted in 2020 roughly as they did in 2016; given this (and given that many of these counties went solidly for Trump in 2016), it is unsurprising that Biden won only one of them. Hamilton had already cast his vote for Biden on the first day of early voting. Wolf has allowed for the counting of ballots to continue for three days after Nov. 3, meaning its unlikely that a winner will be called in Pennsylvania for at least a week after the election. He was working on his neighbors lawn when he paused to talk to The Epoch Times. Jeff Myers, a lifelong Vigo County resident in Riley, on the other hand, wont let the big events of the day, such as riots and the pandemic, determine his vote. I mean the whole world ought to be mad at China, we should all be going to war against them. I quit voting once out of the union.. Charlotte Cuthbertson is a senior reporter with The Epoch Times who primarily covers border security and the opioid crisis. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. Its just stupid, she said. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. Understanding the I-4 corridor's bellwether mojo requires defining the area. She also said that many people who come into the pub are outspoken about the current state of affairs in the United States, especially on Saturdays when the crowds are larger. We live in an evenly divided nation, and the past five presidential elections demonstrate that well with their extremely close outcomes, Bergbower, an associate professor at Indiana State University, said in an email to The Epoch Times. What happened to our Democratic Party? . Hes happy about the passage of the First Step Act, criminal justice reform that Trump signed into law in 2018, which includes decreased sentences for some drug crimes, and also makes it easier to get out of prison early for good behavior. . He didnt vote in 2016 either. Today, there are also 14,183 independents registered to vote and five libertarians, according to the Ottawa Countys Board of Elections website. The Wall Street Journal and The Epoch Times independently analyzed the results of 19 counties around the United States that have nearly perfect presidential voting records over the last 40 years. The majority of rural America are our hard-working, blue-collar workers. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Ottawa County is also the home to the Marblehead lighthouse (the oldest lighthouse in continuous operation on the Great Lakes), Africa Wildlife Safari, and its county seat of Port Clinton is known as the Walleye Capital of the World. Teresa Shepherd, a middle-aged woman living in Riley, just southeast of Terre Haute, has never cared much about voting. Its horrible. Both Hidalgo and Valencia County, New Mexico, are close to 60 percent Hispanic, while Westmoreland County in Virginia is almost one-third black. For example, if we call a county a bellwether if it has one less correct match than the number of elections in a sequence, we will get nearly 19 bellwethers even in a set of eleven elections, and in a set of seven elections, we will see 197 bellwethers far more than the 27 we would find under our assumptions when we require a bellwether to have an unblemished record of predictive success. Enforce the ones that you do have, he said. If you own a business and you have a bad summer where it rains every weekend, youre out of luck.. But according to the. First, we can readily imagine that some counties demographically/politically mirror the nation, and thus monitoring this small set of counties closely would tell us with high predictive reliability what will happen nationally. Its too big. Note: This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of USAPP American Politics and Policy, nor the London School of Economics. He is his own worst enemy.. Many of its residents include farmers, retirees who love to fish, and more than 3,300 military veterans. Fifteen percent is a very large gap to close, he said. Westmoreland is the only one in the South; Clallam is the only county on the West Coast, and Hidalgo and Valencia are the only counties in the Mountain West. As for the pandemic, he doesnt think Trump has done a bad job on that. If that date were to change, the Ohio legislature is the only one who can request to postpone or change the date of an election through legislative action.. There are three counties that voted with the eventual winner for each of the past 10 elections,. They've been dubbed "bellwether counties" and until this year,. Fitch said almost half of the 5,000-strong Second Amendment group in Elk county are Democrats. Part of his route is driving up to Detroit and Flint, Michigan, every day. Every time you pass a law, the government becomes more oppressive. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole. Whats happening is affecting everybody, he said. Theyve been dubbed bellwether counties and until this year, no president since at least Ronald Reagan has missed even one. When Republican Dr. Ted Bowlus defeated Democrat Joel Kuhlman in the 2016 election, it completed a single-party commission. Just like a hurricane, you can try to prepare for it the best you can, but you never know what kind of damage it is going to cause. Bernard Grofman is Distinguished Professor of Political Science and Jack W. Peltason Chair of Democracy Studies at the University of California, Irvine. The way he spoke to President Trump bothers me even more, because hes speaking to my president. Peloton plans to complete construction on the building on its 200-acre property and sell it, but will downsize its workforce. Armagost was lucky during the shutdowns, as bike shop repairs and maintenance were considered essential and he remained in business. People are so worked up about it all the time, stressed out. Greg Abbott of Texas as a possible presidential candidate. Its difficult to have a conversation nowadays without really stirring up emotions, and thats probably my main issue, Hamilton told The Epoch Times as he stood in downtown Terre Haute. Those dollars wont be there, because people will be buying gas. Thats about 43 percent of the eligible voters in the country, according to a. of nonvoters overseen by professors at Tufts University and Stony Brook University. In 2016, Pennsylvania itself was wrenched out of its 24-year run as a Democratic sure bet when Donald Trump cleared just over 44,000 more votes than Hillary Clinton and took the states prized 20 electoral votes. He said hes had trouble getting a job for much of his life, because he was found guilty of a felony drug offense as a young man. If he does not answer that issue clearly, I will not vote for him.. Longtime Rep. Marcy Kaptur, a Democrat who has been in Congress since 1983, is running for reelection; Teresa Gavarone and J.R. Majewski are competing in the GOP primary. Miller is often faced with tough decisions in his business. Ottawa County is on the doorstep of a Democratic stronghold, about 35 miles east of Toledo in neighboring Wood County. It was everything, all at once, all of a sudden. To find out more about cookies and change your preferences, visit our, looked to ten allegedly bellwether counties, The Russia-Ukraine War: a challenge to international order, Global Energy Politics and Cost of Living Crisis, The New Normal: a dual track approach to health strategy and policy, Inside the Deal: how the EU got Brexit done. Biden has talked both ways, so its hard for me to really grasp where he is on the issue. The upper Midwest, upstate New York, and northern New England are home to a disproportionate share of high-scoring counties, they said. My opinion is thats just what it is, Shepherd said of COVID-19. Shepherds family, on the other hand, wasnt much interested in politics. Your email address will not be published. Shortened URL for this post:https://bit.ly/3JzjZ3j. Those counties were: Warren County, Ill. Vigo County, Ind. Thus, for some sequences of elections there are indeed, bellwether counties. Titchner, a Vietnam veteran, has been painting houses for 45 years and said he votes based on the candidate, rather than the party. Of the 19 bellwether counties that have consistently voted for the presidential winner since 1980, all but one chose Trump, the Journal found, PJ Media reported. One major planned project in Wood County pulled outPeloton, an exercise bike and interactive exercise equipment manufacturer.

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